International trade with Russia boomed this year, even as countries imposed sanctions after the Ukraine invasion. As restrictions take effect, Moscow’s alliances have been shifting.
United States –35% Brazil +106% South Korea –17% Turkey +198% The Netherlands +32% Belgium +81% United Kingdom –79%
Arrows sized by post-invasion monthly trade value with Russia. Percent change is the monthly average trade value after the invasion compared with the monthly average in 2017-2021.
Countries vowed to sever economic ties with Russia and imposed sanctions that were intended to cripple its economy after it invaded Ukraine. But as one of the world’s most important producers of oil, gas and raw materials, Russia has had longstanding and lucrative trade partnerships. Breaking those ties is not easy.
In 2020, Russia imported $220 billion of products from the rest of the world, including cars and car parts, medicine and computers, buying heavily from China, Germany, Korea and elsewhere.
The volume of its imports has since plunged as sanctions and trade limits went into effect, according to a New York Times analysis of trade data. But a few countries, including China and Turkey, have deepened their relationships with Russia since the war began.
Many countries have found living without Russian raw materials incredibly difficult. More than two-thirds of Russia’s exports by value before the war were oil, gas and key metals and minerals, which help to power cars, warm homes and supply factories all over the globe.
That has led to a frustrating reality for Western officials who had hoped to undercut Russia’s war effort by punishing its economy: The value of its exports actually grew after it invaded Ukraine, The Times analysis shows, even in many countries that have taken an active role in opposing Russia.
Russia’s relationship with the world is continuing to evolve rapidly. To assess the global shifts, The Times analyzed years of country-level trade data compiled by the Observatory of Economic Complexity, an online data platform. Because the data is published with a lag, the picture it provides is inherently backward looking. Russia’s ability to trade with the rest of the world could be further curtailed in the coming months as the West introduces new restrictions. But so far, the data underscores how deeply intertwined Russia is with the global economy, allowing Moscow to generate substantial sums of money as it enters its ninth month of war. Attempts by Western nations to use sanctions and other measures to cripple Russia’s economy have so far had limited effects. “It’s very difficult to live without Russian resources,” said Sergey Aleksashenko, the former deputy finance minister of Russia and deputy chairman of its central bank. “There is no substitute.” As it drags on, the war, and the world’s response to it, are bringing about a remarkable change in international trade flows. Food is in short supply in many countries that rely on wheat and other staples grown outside their borders. Prices for fuel and other products have risen at a time of record inflation. And Russia’s long-standing economic ties with Europe are gradually being unknotted, and new alliances are forming as goods are rerouted to other countries, the data shows.
The European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom have imposed harsh economic penalties on Russia, sanctioning hundreds of wealthy citizens and government officials and largely cutting the country off from the international financial system. They also vowed to stop sending advanced technology and banned Russian airlines from flying to the West. Decisions by global companies to halt operations in Russia have also had a major impact. Container ships filled with foreign goods are no longer streaming into the port at St. Petersburg, a main point of connection with the rest of the world. And inflation and economic uncertainty are causing Russian consumers to cut back on buying the products still on store shelves. But sanctions on the Russian energy that helps power Western economies have been slower to take effect. The United States has already cut off purchases of Russian oil, and the United Kingdom will do so by the end of the year. But neither country is a major buyer. The European Union — which is heavily dependent on Russian energy, and, like many countries, is already struggling with inflation — has been slower to act. Europe stopped importing Russian coal in August. It will ban all imports of oil shipped by sea from Russia in December, and all petroleum products in February. Russia, in turn, has banned some of its own exports, including agricultural and medical products.
